Wind Assisted Dispersal of Insect Tree Pests: An Interdisciplinary Modelling and Ecological Study

Project Overview

This interdisciplinary project combines applied mathematics and ecology to examine the risk of invasive insect tree pests entering Great Britain via wind-assisted long-distance dispersal. While existing biosecurity focuses on trade pathways, wind dispersal could provide another significant introduction route. Building on prior research on the European spruce bark beetle, the project aims to identify which pests might be capable of semi-passive dispersal by wind and develop models predicting their spatio-temporal spread.

What You Will Do

The project involves assessing pest species from the Pest Health Risk Register for aerodynamic capacities of long-distance flight, evaluating biological constraints such as flight duration and temperature thresholds impacting dispersal range, and classifying pests by flight dynamics relative to taxonomic and ecological groupings. Integral to this is developing integrated biological and atmospheric dispersion models. The student may engage in laboratory work to support biological model validation and will acquire skills in mathematical ecology, aerodynamics, atmospheric and epidemiological modelling.

Expected Outcomes

The research will deliver quantitative assessments of long-distance insect dispersal risks to UK forestry, improve understanding of pest flight behaviors and dynamics related to biosecurity, and produce predictive models aiding forest health management and invasive species prevention. The results can guide policy and practical biosecurity interventions by highlighting previously under-recognized pathways.

Why This Matters

Invasive insect pests threaten UK forests, with implications for ecology, economy, and climate resilience. Understanding wind-assisted dispersal complements trade-based biosecurity by addressing natural introduction routes. Improving prediction and detection of pest spread is essential for proactive forest protection and maintaining ecosystem services.