Economic Carrying Capacity and Future Conservation of Rhinos in Privately Governed OECMs

Project Overview

Rhino populations are increasingly found on privately managed lands classified as Other Effective Area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs), where landowner decisions critically impact conservation outcomes. This project focuses on white rhinos in South Africa, where over half the population resides on private land. While biological capacity has been studied, economic carrying capacity—factors such as security costs, ecotourism income, and horn trade restrictions—defines the practical limits of rhino conservation in these landscapes.

What You Will Do

The project will develop a bioeconomic counterfactual modelling framework combining rhino population dynamics with economic factors. You will create multi-market and equilibrium displacement models to simulate rhino recovery under different management and trade scenarios. The work will integrate data on costs, revenues, and population parameters from southern African contexts to produce policy-relevant simulations.

Expected Outcomes

The research will clarify differences between ecological and economic carrying capacities for rhino populations and assess how horn trade restrictions influence private and community investment in conservation. It will analyze the interplay of market structures, management costs, and revenue streams to identify sustainable conservation spaces within OECMs.

Why This Matters

Conserving rhinos amidst poaching and economic pressures is globally significant for biodiversity and local livelihoods. Insights from this project will guide policies balancing ecological viability with financial realities on private lands, supporting long-term species survival and community benefits.